IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Central Florida
American Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.1	#111
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.7	#218
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.9	#141

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.2	#86

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.5%	1.1%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	1.3%	2.8%	0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.0%	19.4%	7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	7.7%	14.8%	4.5%
Average Seed	9.8	9.4	10.4

.500 or above	30.0%	48.3%	21.4%
.500 or above in Conference	41.4%	54.2%	35.3%
Conference Champion	2.9%	4.7%	2.0%
Last Place in Conference	7.3%	4.2%	8.7%

First Four	2.0%	3.3%	1.4%
First Round	10.0%	17.8%	6.2%
Second Round	4.1%	7.6%	2.4%
Sweet Sixteen	1.1%	2.3%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.8%	0.2%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 4	0 - 4
Quad 1b	1 - 3	1 - 7
Quad 2	3 - 5	4 - 12
Quad 3	4 - 3	8 - 15
Quad 4	2 - 0	11 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 28, 2020	29	Oklahoma	L	70-75	32%
Nov 30, 2020	60	Auburn	L	71-73	42%
Dec 06, 2020	19	@ Michigan	L	65-78	12%
Dec 15, 2020	18	@ Houston	L	61-74	12%
Dec 19, 2020	16	@ Florida St.	L	66-79	12%
Dec 22, 2020	55	Cincinnati	L	68-71	41%
Dec 30, 2020	210	Tulane	W	75-65	82%
Jan 02, 2021	97	@ South Florida	L	63-67	36%
Jan 05, 2021	40	Memphis	L	72-76	37%
Jan 09, 2021	98	@ Tulsa	L	64-68	36%
Jan 13, 2021	145	@ Temple	L	70-71	50%
Jan 17, 2021	18	Houston	L	64-71	28%
Jan 23, 2021	65	SMU	L	68-70	45%
Jan 27, 2021	151	East Carolina	W	76-70	70%
Jan 30, 2021	77	@ Wichita St.	L	68-74	29%
Feb 03, 2021	40	@ Memphis	L	69-79	20%
Feb 06, 2021	98	Tulsa	W	67-65	57%
Feb 10, 2021	77	Wichita St.	L	70-71	48%
Feb 14, 2021	55	@ Cincinnati	L	65-74	24%
Feb 17, 2021	97	South Florida	W	66-64	56%
Feb 19, 2021	210	@ Tulane	W	72-68	64%
Feb 23, 2021	65	@ SMU	L	65-73	27%
Feb 27, 2021	145	Temple	W	73-67	69%
Mar 04, 2021	151	@ East Carolina	W	73-72	51%
Projected Record						10 - 14	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0		2.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.0				5.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	1.5	2.6	1.7	0.5	0.1						7.0	3rd
4th										0.1	0.8	2.6	3.5	1.8	0.4	0.0							9.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.3	3.8	3.8	1.8	0.2	0.0								11.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.1	4.4	4.2	1.6	0.2	0.0									12.8	6th
7th						0.1	0.6	2.7	4.9	4.0	1.2	0.2	0.0										13.8	7th
8th					0.1	1.0	3.6	4.9	3.2	0.9	0.1												13.9	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	1.7	3.6	3.8	2.0	0.4	0.0													11.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.5	1.8	2.2	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.0														7.7	10th
11th	0.1	0.7	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0															4.4	11th

Total	0.1	0.8	1.8	3.3	4.8	7.2	8.8	10.1	10.9	10.8	10.1	8.7	7.1	5.7	4.1	2.7	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	92.5%	0.2		0.2	0.0
17-3	80.9%	0.6		0.5	0.1	0.0
16-4	48.4%	0.9		0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
15-5	23.3%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-6	8.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
13-7	1.6%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.9%	2.9		1.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%								0.0
19-1	0.1%		100.0%	61.6%	38.4%	2.8		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0												100.0%
18-2	0.3%		100.0%	39.5%	60.5%	4.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0									100.0%
17-3	0.8%		95.4%	26.6%	68.8%	6.6			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		93.7%
16-4	1.8%		89.2%	19.3%	69.9%	8.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1					0.2		86.7%
15-5	2.7%		78.0%	19.7%	58.3%	9.1				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0				0.6		72.6%
14-6	4.1%		54.9%	10.2%	44.7%	10.4						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.9		49.8%
13-7	5.7%		31.7%	9.2%	22.4%	10.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0			3.9		24.7%
12-8	7.1%		13.5%	5.9%	7.5%	11.6									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		6.1		8.0%
11-9	8.7%		5.9%	3.6%	2.3%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		8.2		2.4%
10-10	10.1%		3.0%	2.7%	0.3%	13.4										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.8		0.4%
9-11	10.8%		1.3%	1.2%	0.1%	14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.6		0.1%
8-12	10.9%		0.7%	0.7%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	10.8
7-13	10.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
6-14	8.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	8.8
5-15	7.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
4-16	4.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.8
3-17	3.3%																							3.3
2-18	1.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
1-19	0.8%																							0.8
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		11.0%	3.5%	7.5%	9.8		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.3	1.7	1.9	1.9	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	89.0		7.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%